Baumblog EST 1968 - A blog for the Baumbachs who originated in Syracuse, NY

Ever bought a scratch-off lottery ticket? You might want to avoid that in the future--the odds are likely far lower than what the lottery claims. Why? Read about what this Canadian statistical geologist discovered.

After reading this, I'm about ready to petition New York to drop the scratch off games entirely.

Marc said 1 day later

My roommate and I figured this out in college as well for one of the scratch off games we used to play sometimes (Lucky 7's if I recall). It wasn't a terribly interesting find in our minds and made perfect sense being computer programmers and understanding pseudo-random very well :).

The reason we didn't think it was too mind blowing is because I've never seen a case where you are in control of which scratch off tickets you get. Typically you get them from a machine or from a person behind the counter at a gas station who just grabs the next one off the big roll. So you're still up against the randomness of the distribution of the tickets on a per roll basis, which I'm sure is fixed and evenly distributed by some statistical means as well.
Geoff said 1 day later

Yup, unless you are the store clerk....or you bribe them. As the article indicated, this fella bought a roll of tickets and asked if he could return any of the unused tickets. You could do that.

Either way, it likely isn't worth the time, though it appears a few must have cracked the system and make a fair share off of it. I'm sure they illegally acquire these tickets anyhow. Interesting read none the less.
Marc said 1 day later

The part I found the most interesting are the ones where the pattern matched, but it was still a loser. I assume they are the result of needing more tickets to give out, but hitting the limit on number of winners.

The fix for this seems so simple though: Make the unique identifier which determines whether it's a winner be covered by the scratch off material too. If that number is scratched off the lottery ticket is considered used.

On a related note for scratch off tickets, I think it's pretty ridiculous they allow you to "win" the amount of money the ticket cost. It's obviously in the system to fuel addictions without losses. But hey, if any of these lottos use the $70 billion for some good, I guess we can let the suckers keep coming.
GJ said 1 day later

Geoff, organized crime finds this very worthwhile. So does a certain "lucky" woman in Texas.
Geoff said 2 days later

Yes, but the means by which they cheat the system, aka acquiring those tickets by bribes or what have you is also illegal. I doubt these mobsters are walking into 7-11 and buying rolls of scratch off tickets. They are likely in cahoots with someone to get these tickets I imagine.

What I meant was it's not worth you or I legally purchasing these tickets and trying to crack it. If you want to break other laws to get those tickets, then sure it could be worth it.
GJ said 2 days later

No, they're not "cheating" the system per se. Not necessarily, anyhow. Here's how it can work:

1. Buy lottery tickets in bulk (most states allow this), for the purpose of "office gifting."
2. Filter out the winning tickets (assuming you have successfully cracked the game, that is) and return the non-winners as "non-gifted" for full refund (again, most states allow this).
3. Profit.

GJ said 2 days later

One could argue that simply cracking the game and using it to increase your odds is illegal, per se.
Marc said 2 days later

You could always say you have mental abilities beyond normal humans to be able to pick winners with your ability to see into the future. Which is probably somewhere along the lines of pleading insanity, but a smart person just calls it probability and statistics. :)

The office gifting is an interesting thought though... that would likely work well.
Steve said 3 days later

I never bothered with scratch off's. What's the point? If you're going to go, go big. Megamillions baby!
Geoff said 3 days later

I didn't realize you could return tickets...i would think with the number of tickets you'd have to buy to make millions, someone would catch on
GJ said 4 days later

Texas has some Texas-sized scratch games. You know where that lucky woman lives, right? :)
Geoff said 4 days later

I am living in the wrong state....
GJ said 4 days later

Most of the ex-New Yorkers would agree with you. :)
Geoff said 4 days later

:)