Baumblog EST 1968 - A blog for the Baumbachs who originated in Syracuse, NY

Steve said about 11 hours later

Are you ready GJ? Are you really ready to start this?

30 mpg - how many people get it? Well, not you guys driving G8 GTs and supercharged Pontiac Grand Prixs (or me driving 5.7L Hemi powered Challenger - which gets 25 mpg highway, BTW). Normal people that drive normal cars do though. Fuel economy ratings are a joke, and in no way simulate what you actually see for fuel economy. The 4 cylinder Sebrings and Avengers are rated at 30 mpg highway. Everyone I know that has one reports they get 34-35 mpg highway, and 31-32 mpg average. I've spent a lot of time driving a Sebring convertible with a 2.7L V6 with just a simple 4 speed automatic transmission. I reliably get 30 mpg with that car. The Malibu and our Sebring and Avenger get better real world gas mileage than Toyota.

Hybrid trucks are a stupid idea? Really? No, Hybrid Honda Insights are a stupid idea. The Hybrid trucks get over 25% better city fuel economy compared to similarly powered trucks. So you can have your cake and eat it too. Sure, 25% of 16 mpg is only 4 mpg, but when you figure out how much fuel savings that really is per mile driven, it's a hell of a lot better than a small hybrid car that gets 36 mpg, compared to 32 mpg for it's normal car. The big vehicles that people WANT are what make the most sense for Hybridization.

We all know ethanol is stupid. Blame the government and the farming industry for pushing that so hard. I sure as heck don't like paying more for food because some idiot wants to put corn oil in his gas tank, get worse fuel economy, worse performance, and pay more for it (when you figure out the cost per mile driven, not the cost per gallon). We only brag about it because the government and the press and the farming industry have made it such a big deal, all the uninformed people in the nation think it's the best thing since sliced bread. So are we going to market to them? You bet.

Fuel cell vehicles - still WAY under development. Still just a dream. Good to see they continue studying them, but don't expect to see them for sale for 10+ years.

The Chevy Volt - if it actually comes to fruition, it WILL be awesome. I think it will come to fruition, the limiting factor is cost. Chrysler is working on a similar system, also targeting 40 mile round trips in electric mode only. And how's this for an idea? How about if companies start providing plug in parking spaces for employees? They swipe their card, the can measure the energy used to recharge their card, and they are charged for it. Now even you can drive 25 miles to work, driving like a maniac, plug in, then drive home, without ever once hearing that gas engine fire up. Want to know what's stupid? Toyota thinks the plug in hybrid only needs a 10 mile range in electric only. That's stupid. Sure, the Navy replaced this technology with nuclear technology. Think that we'll have nuclear powered cars running around anytime soon? I don't think so.

Remember this - the big three saved democracy about 65 years ago. Remember World War II? Who built all the planes, tanks, JEEPS? The big three did. We were there when our country needed us, now how about you guys being there when we need a little help? We are fighting for our lives now, not due to crappy cars (and I'll admit we have some, but we also have some really good ones), but due to the fact that few of our customers can get approved for credit now, and we can't even get loans from the commercial banking industry, as we normally would to whether these hard times.

I'm not saying the US auto industry hasn't made mistakes. They have. Huge ones even, like letting the UAW negotiate ridiculous contracts. However, are our mistakes even as bad as the banking industry, and the idiots who have all lost their houses because they took risky loans, or bought way beyond their means? And the government just GAVE them money. Again, we are asking for an INTEREST BEARING LOAN.

Maybe you should read up on the studies of what will happen if the Big 3 declare bankruptcy. And trust me, if one of them declares it, the other two have to, just to remain competitive. Here's what happens purely to tax income for the federal government based on income tax lost due to unemployed folks, unemployment compensation, and pension reimbursement - The federal government would lose over $160 Billion in 3 years. Guess who gets to foot that bill? You do, I do, all of us taxpayers do. Well, no, not me, as I'll be out of a job and collecting unemployment. So, do you want to loan me $25 billion now, or lose $160 billion by 2012?
Steve said about 11 hours later

BTW, GJ, I think you're becoming a Republican....and I'm becoming a Democrat. I even voted for a few of them this year...
GJ said about 13 hours later

Get this Steve...I've started reading the Economist. Haha...yes, I'm turning into a very conservative liberal. Go figure.

Let's say we give that $25B loan to them. What will they change to improve their situation? If the economy stays sucky, they will burn through that in only a matter of a few months...and then what? We give them another loan? Loans that never get paid back are grants, btw...which is why most folks refer to these as bailouts.

Oh, and I do know a bit about the auto industry. If I recall, I've been pointing to this collapse for the better part of a year. All it would take would be a nasty downturn in the economy, and presto--it happened. Wasn't my original theory, but it's been talked about in the financial arena for much of the past few years. I can't design a car, but I like 'em, and I pay a lot of attention to the industry for a computer geek.

I've read a fair amount about the bankruptcy options for the Big 3, but likely not from places like GMfactsandpropaganda.com...more like Motley Fool, WSJ, and various other financial blogs. As such, the opinion of the bankruptcy option varies quite a bit...and what you're representing above is what the auto companies are trying to sell (in other words, the worst-case argument).
GJ said about 13 hours later

Oh, and I have a vendetta against the Volt, too. :) Simply, I think it's yet another sign that GM doesn't get it...or just is guilty of wishful thinking. If they can magically come up with a weather-impervious battery, and slap it into a car that magically evades the laws of friction and air resistance, I'll be thrilled. Surprised, for sure, but thrilled. However...I'm a realist...and while this car "sounds" good, it also smacks of "broken promises."
Geoff said 1 day later

I still have yet to hear a good reason why we gave the banks all this money and not the auto industry. Hell, even I got some money for free. Supposedly the economy would collapse...it already seems like it has, but more detail please. I'd just like to know what "collapse" means to those bankers there who really did a bang up job. :)

And if Harry Reid is going to complain about the auto execs flying in their private jets to discuss the bailout, why doesn't he take a big long look at AIG. IMO, neither of them should get any money.

I gave GM $32G's in April and I took a nice loan from Chase to do it, I've made my contribution.

GJ said 1 day later

They've done a piss poor job of keeping AIG in line--they're the poster boy for a bank gone wrong. Meanwhile, Paulson and the banks said the $700B was for buying up bad debt (dumb idea)...next, it was to buy up banks (dumber idea)...now, I'm not quite sure what it's for beyond lining the pockets of the assholes that caused the problem to begin with. The idea behind it was to unfreeze the credit market, which it really didn't do...it's still pretty gummed up. There was all this gloom and doom that the banking industry would topple, and the fact is, if the banks all start failing, we'll be back to barter in no time. :)

Of course, this makes the lawmakers ANGRY. So, they tell themselves, the NEXT group to ask for a bailout is going to get the ninth degree...and that was the automakers. Add to it that the automakers have been pretty headstrong (GM was up until very recently claiming that they were in NO danger of bankruptcy, when their balance sheets said otherwise for most of the past two years, all three have expresses feigned surprise at the upswing in fuel prices that wiped out their profitable SUV market, Cerebus has tried to claim that they did not intend to do a strip and flip, yet hired Mr. Strip and Flip Nardelli to head the operation...the list goes on and on). The end result--lawmakers are having a field day with these guys.

I think they might see the $25B as part of that package approved in September. Any more than that, and Congress will (rightfully) demand the heads of the big 2.8.
Steve said 2 days later

GJ - you make a comment - "GM was up until very recently claiming that they were in NO danger of bankruptcy." That's very true. When people could still get a loan, they would still buy GM cars. The problem is, the people can't get the freaking loans. They want a new car, but they can't get a loan for one. It's not about the cars, it's about the loans. And until the consumers can get the loans, the automakers (all of 'em, not just the "Detroit 3"), are going to be in trouble. The loans are purely to help the auto industry stick around until the loan market comes back. If it never comes back, then we're doomed. If it comes back later than expected, then we'll be back to ask for more money.

So GM and the rest were not lying when they were saying they were not considering bankruptcy - they said that before the credit market dried up. When that happened, sales dropped industry wide - we're done to about 10 million cars a year - for the past 10 years we've been running at 16-17 million cars a year.

Gas prices didn't cause the big issue. It was the lack of credit for consumers. That will continue until credit becomes available, and once people aren't so freaking scared to spend some money. Until then, we're stuck.

So it all goes back to the freaking banks, those idiots that screwed up in the first place. And they get the reward from the government? They're the fools that gave crappy loans. They should be the ones going out of business. Instead, we're going to pay for their mistakes, some of us twice over (through my taxes and me losing my job).

GJ said 2 days later

Wrong. GM's balance sheet has sucked for quite some time--that's why they've been selling off assets like there was no tomorrow (literally, as it may turn out). They're almost out of assets (buh bye Delco), which is why they are now begging for money. They've been losing money each quarter for how long again? It didn't just start with the credit freeze...but now that they're selling so many fewer cars, they're losing even MORE money each month.

Now, you and the automakers are fooling yourselves if you believe people are not buying cars solely because the credit markets are a little icy. If you haven't noticed, a lot of companies outside the auto industry are already laying off people, and others are cutting back on salaries and benefits. Most people have also lost of ton of dough in the stock market of late. So, for a lot of people, they suddenly realize that maybe stretching their transportation out a few more years isn't such a bad idea--especially if they're struggling to pay their bills as it is. The lack of credit isn't scaring people...it's the lack of income that has them freaked. Unfortunately, consumer confidence isn't that easy to restore once creamed like it has been the last six months.

The automakers benefited from the free-for-all credit market of the past 25 years...people were buying way above and beyond their means in not just houses, but cars, too. Those days of the Wild West of Credit are done for a long time. As such, the automakers need to take a realistic view of the market--and cut their productive capacity down considerably. 10 million cars a year may well be the new average mark--at least, for the next several years.

I didn't say GM was lying about not considering bankruptcy. They were lying (to us and to themselves) that they were not in need of a bankruptcy and not in need of massive restructuring to head off this crisis before it got this bad. Bankruptcy rumors have been floating around GM for the better part of two years...and they weren't unfounded.

So, give the automakers $25B. Yay. It won't fix the disease that plagues the domestics--just prolong the inevitable a while longer.

Geoff said 3 days later

I still think the big three are getting the short end of the stick and that's partly why Steve, Dad, and employees of the big three are likely pissed off. We were so quick to bail out these banks with $700B with total disregard, and then piss all over GM (I say GM because they are getting the most heat from the Media and Congress) when they ask for 3% of that. I do realize bailing out every company that goes under isn't capitalism, but as Steve said, who was there helping us during WW2? Not AIG, not Circuit City.

If you think the big three shouldn't get $25B, then I want the Chinese's $700B back from the banks and nobody gets bailed out. Then the whole economy can crash and burn and we can start fresh. V3.0....the Ron Paul era.

GJ said 4 days later

Actually, truth to be told, the government told the automakers to build war materials. It wasn't that the automakers came to the government. :) I find the revisionist view of that amusing, to say the least.

The banks getting $700B is by far the biggest sham job I've seen pulled in my lifetime. I'm all ears for how to undo that--fire away.

However, don't bet that $25B is where it will stop with the automakers. I think 10x is far more likely...and I think they'll end up failing utterly later. Better to fix them now, then let them fade away. So, I'm on board with helping, so long as they come up with a plan to reduce their footprint (liabilities and capacity) to reasonable levels appropriate to today's markets. It's still going to be an ugly time to be in the industry, but it's a necessary one to ensure our domestic auto manufacturers survive. By the same token, they absolutely need to fix trade imbalances and level the playing field. If the government fails to rectify that, we'll still come to the same bad ending to this story.
Geoff said 5 days later

Well said.

Geoff said 37 minutes later

I'm not even going to respond to that truce comment. I'll take it out on you in Ticket to Ride.

Second, Michelle is DYING to see Twilight, so she is definitely IN (and I'm definitely OUT :)

Cookies, do I hear cookies? Yes, cookies would be most excellent.

Steve said about 1 hour later

I'll have Stocks and Bonds too, if anyone wants to try to play that game just for old time's sake.

GJ, do you still have a list of all the winners of the Cup? I found a place that will engrave it for us.

GJ said about 2 hours later

I'll have to google it....heck, if marc's blog search worked...I think I posted it to the site once upon a time.

Marc said about 3 hours later

I'm arriving this Saturday and leaving early next Sunday. Since our product shipped at IBM, we got the week off, boo yea!

Yes to cookies, I'm glad Laura knows nothing about Twilight and any board games work for me. Also, I don't know this Neal Peart you speak of. I know only of Neil Peart. You'll get to hear plenty of him as I have so much Rush on Rock Band.

GJ: The blog search should work great. Is it not working for you?

BTW, Blog search found this for me: http://www.dragoniv.com/baumblog/2005/9/6/calling-all-memory-cells

GJ said about 10 hours later

Yeah, there is one problem. Try getting to page 2 or later of any search. :)

OK, unless anyone has any changes, here's the list of hockey winners. Guess what--I don't think we need to list runner ups or regular season winners...they don't do that on the Stanley Cup, do they? Nah, I didn't think so.

2007 Darcy (Neanderthals)
2006 Steve (forget what team name Steve used)
2005 GJ (Glenville Dragons)
2004 no season
2003 GJ (Dragons)
2002 Marc (Subzero)
2001 Geoff (RIT Headhunters)
2000 Darcy (Neanderthals)
1999 GJ (Dragons)

Geoff said about 18 hours later

Oh yeah, I should be coming in later Wednesday evening. Marc, let me know when you want to Jam to the best rock band of all time, Rush.

GJ said about 21 hours later

I'll be kicking Marc's ass in Wii Tennis by then, so I'm sure he'll be glad to join you.

Geoff said about 22 hours later

Yeah, after which I will return home and beat both ya'll

Kristen said 1 day later

I'll be home on Wednesday at some point, maybe by dinner. I'll be bringing Drew, sans crutches, which will be nice! We're going to stay at the microtel wed through friday, and head back into town saturday. I closed on my house last night so I'll be moving in on Sunday all day. Fun fun! Ahhh!
That being said, there will be zero cookies coming from me this year, unless I have time to make some at Mom's...although I already packed my recipie box...er.
I'm up for any games, although I don't know about this twilight movie...

Oh and ps. please no one get Drew talking about GM. I think Dad will end up saying no (or go to hell) when he asks to marry his daughter!!!

Geoff said 1 day later

wait, WHEN he asks? I wasn't made aware of any engagements...

GJ said 1 day later

Wait, it sounds like another topic Drew and I would agree on! There aren't all that many others!!! LOL!

As for Twilight...think of it as "Teenagers in Love....with fangs." Abby is hopping to see that one asap, and if I can find some relatives (poor suckers) that want to see it, they can all go together while I remember why I don't like Guitar Hero et.al.

Kristen said 5 days later

It better be a "when"!

So I found this great game called Smart Ass. I thought it would fit our family perfect and it looks like fun! Tell me no one has found this gem yet...

GJ said 5 days later

Nope, don't have it. Sounds like a loud game. Should be perfect!